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The 2026-2027 South American growing season is unfolding under the direct influence of an exceptionally strong El Niño.
This climate driver is actively splitting the continent's agricultural fortunes: forecasters project a wet, broadly crop-supportive summer across Argentina and southern Brazil, while leaving northern Brazil to navigate significant downside risks from persistent drought.
Planting conditions: Disease pressure meets lingering dryness
The season opened with a stark geographical divide. While central and southern Brazil enjoyed ample early moisture, farmers in far northern Brazil and isolated pockets of Argentina faced unyielding dry spells.
A fierce temperature split has compounded these extremes, baking northern Brazil under intense heat while persistently cool air settled over southern Brazil and Argentina.
For growers across east-central and south-central Brazil—spanning southern Goias, southern Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Santa Catarina—the narrative is quickly shifting from welcome rain to operational risk. Relentless active rainfall over the coming weeks threatens to waterlog fields, driving up wetness concerns and setting the stage for heavy disease pressure.
Fortunately, shifting weather patterns promise relief for some of the hardest-hit dry zones. Upcoming rains are poised to soften parched soils across northwestern Brazil, including northern Goias, though fields in northern Mato Grosso may still need an extra surge of moisture to fully recover.
Meanwhile, widespread showers sweeping across Argentina should finally extinguish the lingering drought across its west-central and eastern agricultural belts.
Summer outlook: Projecting crop stress through February
As the season pushes into the core summer months, Argentina and far southern Brazil remain in a highly favorable position, with persistent wet and cool conditions expected to support robust crop production through February.
In stark contrast, northwestern Brazil faces the brunt of the region's dryness risk right during the heart of the growing season, threatening yield potential for both first-crop corn and soybeans.
Moving further east, however, the outlook brightens for northeastern Brazil, where incoming January moisture is anticipated to boost overall crop health.
Evaluating forecast risk through historical analogs
While meteorologists remain highly confident in a wet season for Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, central Brazil faces a precarious outlook. Strong historical El Niño analogs—notably 1972–1973 and 2023–2024—point directly toward drier outcomes, introducing a distinct threat of drought during the core growing season.
Anticipating safrinha crop risks from March to May
As the calendar turns toward the March-to-May safrinha growing season, the grip of El Niño is expected to hold firm. This sets up a stark regional divide for second-crop corn: northern safrinha areas brace for warm, dry weather that threatens to stress crops and drag down yield potential.
Conversely, southern production zones are positioned to capture wetter conditions, setting the stage for much stronger crop potential. However, given the extended lead time, forecasters advise that confidence in this late-season outlook remains slightly lower.
Regional risk assessment at a glance
Argentina and southern Brazil: Wet and cool conditions through February favor crop production.
Central and south-central Brazil: Persistent active rainfall increases the risk of wetness and disease pressure.
Northwestern Brazil: Dryness remains the primary threat, likely reducing potential for first-crop corn and soybeans.
Northeastern Brazil: Expected moisture in January should boost regional crop conditions.
Safrinha corn: Warm, dry weather poses yield risks in northern areas, while southern areas benefit from wetter conditions and higher crop potential.
Forecast risk: While confidence in southern wetness is high, historical analogs suggest a potential for drier outcomes in central Brazil.
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