Developing El Niño and its impacts on global agricultural crop production

El Niño is currently developing and is expected to strengthen over the coming months. It is likely to become a strong to very strong event. What does that mean for agricultural production around the world? 

North America: Favorable conditions for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat 

In North America, El Niño typically brings cooler and wetter conditions across the Midwest during the late summer months. This should create more favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans during their moisture-sensitive reproductive phases, increasing the likelihood of higher yields and production. 

El Niño also tends to produce cooler and wetter conditions across the central and southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast during the fall and winter. These conditions are generally favorable for winter wheat sowing and establishment heading into the next growing season.  

However, the active branch of the southern Jet Stream during El Niño winters typically results in flooding concerns and increased risk of landslides in the Southwest, especially central and southern California.    

South America: Improved outlook for Southern Brazil and Argentina 

Wetter conditions are also more likely in southern Brazil and Argentina during their primary corn and soybean growing season from October through February. This should support favorable yields and production across much of these regions next season. 

Some dryness, however, is typically confined to northern Brazil during El Niño events. 

India: A weaker monsoon raises crop concerns 

El Niño episodes typically weaken the Indian summer monsoon. So far this season, monsoonal rainfall has been approximately 40% below the long-term average. Current forecasts suggest the monsoon will finish around 10% below normal for the season as a whole. 

As a result, negative impacts are likely for several summer crops, including soybeans, groundnuts, cotton, and rice. 

Southeast Asia and Australia: The Indian Ocean Dipole adds complexity 

Lower yields are also common during El Niño years for Southeast Asian palm oil production as well as Australian wheat and barley. 

However, recent weather patterns have been influenced by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A negative IOD is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and enhanced convection in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to increased rainfall across Southeast Asia and southern and western Australia. 

As El Niño strengthens, the IOD is forecast to shift toward neutral or even positive conditions over the coming weeks. This transition would likely result in cooler sea surface temperatures and suppressed convection across the eastern Indian Ocean, reducing rainfall and increasing the risk of dryness and crop stress in Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern and western Australia. 

Southern Africa: Higher risk of corn stress 

El Niño also typically brings below-normal rainfall to South Africa during the austral summer. As a result, the risk of dryness and stress on next season's corn crop is expected to increase. 

Key takeaways

• United States: Cooler and wetter conditions generally favor corn, soybeans, and winter wheat. 

• Southern Brazil and Argentina: Wetter conditions support improved production prospects for corn and soybeans. 

• Northern Brazil: Some dryness remains possible. 

• India: A weaker monsoon increases the risk of reduced yields for several key summer crops. 

• Southeast Asia and Australia: A shifting Indian Ocean Dipole could lead to increasing dryness later in the season. 

• South Africa: Drier conditions may place next season's corn crop under greater stress. 

Looking ahead 

While every El Niño event is unique, historical climate patterns provide valuable insight into where agricultural risks and opportunities are most likely to emerge. Seasonal forecasts, combined with ongoing weather monitoring, can help producers, traders, and agribusinesses anticipate changing conditions and make more informed decisions throughout the growing season.