Seasonal forecasting sits in a tricky space between what we know about the atmosphere and what we can reasonably expect from it months ahead. Unlike short-term weather prediction—where physics rules the day—long-term outlooks rely heavily on pattern recognition, climate signals, and a fair bit of tradecraft. Our meteorologists spend weeks combining global ocean data, past analogs, and emerging trends to answer a simple but consequential question for weather-sensitive businesses and decision-makers: What kind of summer are we walking into?

For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.

Ocean signals point to warmth

A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.

Enter El Niño—but with nuance

Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.

So, what does this mean for 2026?

The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.

And what about Europe?

Our forecast calls for above-normal temperatures across most of continental Europe due to warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the developing El Niño, long-range model data, and climate trends. The hottest conditions relative to normal are expected to favor the southern portion of the continent, with temperatures closer to normal further north in Scandinavia.

Long-range forecasting will never be easy. But once we combine expert judgment with global signals that are loud and persistent, the picture that emerges is clear enough: 2026 is shaping up to be another summer where heat is the dominant story.